A heat wave will impact the East US, to be replaced by cooler weather about a week from today. For the Southeast, occasional cooler periods can be expected due to the proximity to the Midwest and Great Lakes. The ECMWF model, which previously dumped a wide plethora of snow in excess of one foot across the Lower Great Lakes, suddenly flipped over to the GFS’ solution in an unexpected turn of events. Cold and snowy conditions should remain for the rest of this winter across the Great Lakes, Midwest. Wet and Snowy conditions are expected in the Northwest as more storms begin to come back to the area. This system will be one of the more powerful ones we have seen in recent years, and its impacts will not be as weak as some modeling systems have previously been predicting them to be. I am not surprised, as the TRIAD Tornado Model has been predicting this to be a pretty dangerous situation for the past couple days.

The GEM model above shows freezing rain accumulations for this storm in millimeters, and if you look closely at the pink dot on the right, it shows up as 100 millimeters of freezing rain. The image above shows forecasted storm tracks from all available GFS Ensemble members. The GFS and GGEM had also taken this system further north with today’s afternoon runs, meaning a consensus appears to be forming. The system is powerful enough, however, to produce a significant ice storm. Local impacts may include substantial rainfall, possibly to the point of severe weather potential, but that all depends on where the storm tracks, and if it even makes it to North America to begin with. The business was tolerant of false positive even at the expense of false negatives. It is possible that the track will change again over the next 24-48 hours before it finally comes ashore. A pattern change will unfold across North America over the next 7-14 days.

The European model had been forecasting this solution for five consecutive runs until this afternoon, when it decided to take the snows further north in accordance with shifting the low pressure system itself further north. Snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -8. What is also a big player is the Low level Jet stream (LLJ). At the same time, at screaming jet stream, speeding along at over 100 knots, will be overhead, greatly aiding in the tornado threat. The LLJ will be going at over 60 knots directly overhead the storms, which worries me because this would likely enhance the tornado threat. This is considered sustainable for severe storms, but not the strongest of them. Regardless of where the storm ends up tracking, chances are good that someone will receive significant snow, while others receive a significant ice storm, and still others get flooding rains. How does this impact a storm forecast 3 to 5 days away?

Cooler weather will prevail in the Central US in the next 7-14 days. PNA pattern in the winter, we see cooler, stormier weather working its way into the Central US and East US. Looks like we’re close to the half-way point in winter, and The Weather Centre is here to bring you the rest of winter forecast. If you’re like most gardeners, you probably can’t wait for the weather to warm up so you can get outside and start planting. If you park your vehicle outside in the cold, there are more chances that you might experience starting problems in the morning. Let’s learn a bit more about this interesting wood to see how it’s different. I stretched it a bit south due to the risk of farther stretching storms as we have seen this winter. While it isn’t necessarily uncommon for post-tropical systems to make their way into the mid-latitudes, forecast models almost always see a drop in verification due to this occurrence.