The GFS is forecasting our system to be resting in the Gulf Coast in the early morning of the 27th. Precipitation looks to be ongoing across a wide swath of that area, with Illinois, Indiana and Missouri possibly getting snow. In this somewhat-different forecasting method, I am using a swath of eastern Asia (namely parts of China, Mongolia and Russia into Japan) to anticipate weather patterns over different parts of the United States in about a 10-day timeframe. Ridging then is provoked in the East US (the reason why cold weather fans in the East see La Nina’s in their nightmares). If it is, why is the cold air not pushing in behind? Note the cold air now flowing in behind the system in the Plains. Precipitation now extends well offshore, but snow is abundant across the Northeast, with New York and Pennsylvania getting the best inland snow. A wider coverage of precipitation near the coast tells me that the ensembles may be favoring that area for the system’s placement, just like the GFS model itself. If you dont have a patio heater, you’re wasting your outside living area for a substantial part of the year.

They dont go with the Hollywood pattern, they just dig everything else that hasnt been touched yet. What is not ludicrous would be to compare global temperatures this past winter season with those that occurred during the last Super Nino, the legendary reference point of 1998. Take a look at these global temperatures anomalies. As of this past Monday morning, an unusually-strong upper level low was observed over northeast China, with an individual disturbance rotating around the base of the low, seen here as entering western South Korea. This image shows 850 millibar temperature forecasts as well as sea level pressure forecasts. This upper level low is situated between a pair of ridges, the stronger of which is placed east of Japan and near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. In a similar fashion, the jet stream is stronger than normal, and thus not as wavy/broken up during the positive AO phase.

In response, the jet stream will dip south into portions of the US and produce an environment favorable for coastal storms (aka Nor’easters). I can’t say I’m liking the GFS’ solution at the moment, because the GFS has not been as good as the ECMWF model, which we will take a look at next. This is the 12z GFS model forecast for the early morning hours of November 27th. This chart combines isobars, areas of high and low pressure, the blue rain/snow line, and precipitation all in one. Now, we have gone forward to the morning of November 27th, just 24 hours later. Now, we have moved forward to the morning of November 28th, when many are just getting up. We now fast forward 12 hours to the evening of November 27th, where we find the blue rain/snow line has returned. However, as I showed above, the blue rain/snow line is still not filling south behind the system.

One picture showed the beady-eyed characters being dropped in blue blanket bundles from a stork’s beak. Right now, the ECMWF Ensembles appear very concentrated on the idea of the ridge being present during this timeframe- a good sign for Midwesterners. Sure, models are good, but we can never forget the ensembles. So we now have two ‘camps’ (different solutions by different models are frequently called camps in the weather world, with one camp taking one scenario and another camp taking a different scenario). 24 hours later, on the morning of November 27th, the ECMWF Ensembles have this system in the Midwest/Ohio Valley with a minimum pressure of 1015 millibars, meaning that it has weakened as it moved from the Rockies to the Midwest. This is the GFS Ensemble mean for the morning of November 27th. Unfortunately, the blue rain/snow line did not print for this image. This image above shows height anomalies of an east-based negative NAO and a west-based negative NAO on the left hand side.

Not only is that a negative NAO, it is an east-based negative NAO. The Southeast ridge has now moved offshore, but its effects are still present so that the storm was moved north. Our storm system has now jumped ship and is offshore, with a low pressure of 1000mb. A fair drop from earlier, but still a weak system. The system has a minimum pressure of 1009 millibars, which is about as strong as the GFS model. This is what the GFS is not showing, and I believe that it should be. The ECMWF is in the north camp (takes the storm north), while the GFS is in the south camp (takes the storm south and up the coast). The placement of that abundance tells me that the low pressure system is taking the route that the 12z GFS took. The ECMWF is predicting this system to be in Indiana at this point, with a minimum pressure reading of 1006 millibars.