These initial storms will feed on upper air support and continuing availability of moderate instability to mature into supercells. I expect most of the supercells to become tornadic in Arkansas before transitioning into southern Missouri as the storms quickly move off to the northeast. As the image shows, probabilities exceed 60% in northeast Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, Minnesota, and northwest Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large Slight Risk of severe weather for the North Plains all the way into the Northeast region. Some of this “warming” will get cut off at the pass as this storm will try desperately to re-center itself off the New England coast. Why should you pay to see just a few weather models, when you can get over 175 weather models for free? The graphic above shows a mean probability of severe weather being reported in any given area, based on the top eight analogs.

Graphic above shows the ECMWF forecast and graphic below is the 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning from the NAM. The graphic below is the 6-day GFS forecast valid at the same time. The GFS is forecasting a positively tilted trough to push into the Upper Midwest on Thursday, creating mid level winds similar to what is being observed today in the Upper Midwest. Negatively tilted troughs are more conducive for severe weather, which is being shown in the Midwest at the time of publishing. Whatever your reasons for recording the weather, be it as a hobby or as a necessary part of your profession, enjoy the weather whatever it throws at you! Weather models are an essential part of modern day meteorology. Thursday will be the day which features more in the way of clouds and eventually some light snow late in the day. A severe weather threat similar to today’s ongoing severe weather threat is being forecast for this upcoming Thursday.

Calm winds and slightly above average temperatures will make for some comfortable weather as far as skiing is concerned both Wednesday and Thursday. There are some websites that offer a limited spectrum of weather models for a monthly fee. There remains a difference between this forecast and today’s event. In today’s event, the trough is digging deeper and producing stronger winds. The trough appears to be pushing on the ridge of high pressure that will be in place over the Southwest. However, as soon as that capping inversion breaks (which is expected to occur in the evening hours of April 9th), air attempting to rise and create thunderstorms will have over 1500 j/kg of instability available. As you may recall, a capping inversion involves a situation where the air at the surface is unable to rise due to a layer of warmer air just above the surface. The cool colors show lowered pressures (indicative of a storm system), and warmer colors show raised pressures, which typically show a quieter pattern. When we do take a look at these compiled storm reports, the prognosis for Wednesday is shocking.

The Plains states that look to be affected by this event are included in a hatched outlook, indicating that the risk of significant severe weather (i.e. strong tornadoes, extremely large hail, and extreme damaging winds) is elevated in those regions. We now continue on with a look at temperatures in the Arctic Circle. Temperatures going into February are expected to be well below average for a large swath of the Midwest and Plains. A “Super Nino” is an El Nino winter where the critical ENSO measuring reasons feature water temperatures of more than 2 Celsius above average for a month. Above shows light snow so far at Summerhaven General Store (7:30 am MST). The disturbance responsible for the light snow is a very weak one but will be followed quickly by more organized weather system which approaches late Friday. Storm Prediction Center has outlined two areas of severe weather on April 9th (red) and April 10th (purple).