National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. By noting the heat index, in conjunction with the forecast for a particular time period (i.e., daily or weekly forecasts), people can plan outdoor activities around these periods of excessive heat. Do the math, and we can expect an unseasonable cold weather event around the August 15-19 timeframe. This severe weather event struck over the Midwest, particularly in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. El Nino has little impact on our summer or early fall weather–so you CAN’T blame this wonderful September weather on the tropical Pacific so easily! By using this correlation technique, we can identify that cold weather and a general stormy pattern may be anticipated 6-10 days after this August 9th impact.

You can program your county, several adjacent counties, or all counties in the coverage area. Expect a raised threat for tropical cyclone formation in the East Pacific between 11/14 – 11/22 per latest model guidance, as strong divergence will persist over the area. Fitbit’s latest smartwatch is a strong contender against the Apple Watch with always-on functionality, a sleek, tapered look, and improved sleep-tracking features (which the Apple Watch doesn’t even have). They’re easy to clean and store, as they are easily folded up and stored in a spare cranny when not in use and many can even be tossed right into the washing machine with the rest of the laundry. Even some light rain showers on the coast. This results in a zonal jet stream (almost directly west-to-east) orientation, supported by some moderate ridging in the Pacific waters just west of the West Coast. Model guidance is in good agreement on ridging keeping a chokehold on the Arctic Circle, which will prohibit reformation of the polar vortex across that area, and thus will keep the risk for cold weather across lower latitudes rather high. Model confusion revolves around whether to allow development of strong low pressure over Greenland, which would then help chances for ridging out towards the Northeast and East Coast.

Storm concerns … potential storm monitored for 12/2 – 12/6. Increased risk for stormier than normal pattern about 12/5 – 12/15, though confidence is low. A potential allergen was considered a true allergen if its sequence was contained in the allergen reference database. This map from Michael Ventrice shows 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies over a time-longitude graph. This forecast graphic, valid on August 9th, shows a typhoon moving north into the southern portion of Japan. Pattern then looks to quiet down by Thanksgiving, with upper level convergence advecting over North America from the North Pacific. Southerly lower-level winds are advecting moisture northward into the Plains and Midwest, which will serve to kick off wintry weather on Thanksgiving. While studying a horoscope or while predicting the future of a person, all the above five elements along with the 12 moon signs and the 27 sub signs are considered. Multi-model guidance above for the 8-10 day period shown is in average agreement, with highest disagreement area over northern Canada into Greenland, leading to additional disagreement over the Northeast United States.

Strong low pressure is currently moving into Canada after igniting tornado-producing thunderstorms on Wednesday. As the system moves into Canada it will flush cold air deep into the United States with northerly winds. This will likely allow for another risk for cyclogenesis, potentially strong, in the United States over the next week or so. New Years Day and the first week of 2016 should see a departure from this cooler/wetter pattern back into more moderated temperatures. The 500mb pattern over the last week showed a dominating ridge in the Gulf of Alaska, leading to negative geopotential height anomalies in central North America. As we head into December, a quieter and warmer pattern is expected to take hold over North America, primarily in the central and western parts of the continent, including the North US, South Canada, and the Pacific Northwest. With respect to global weather, we do see tropical forcing located over the Central Pacific, exerting some influence on the Pacific jet stream as a jet streak pushes eastward over the Aleutian Islands.

Beginning in late November, as the red line shows, a more-formidable upwelling Kelvin Wave traversed the Equatorial Pacific, briefly wiping out the positive water temperature anomalies that the previous two downwelling waves had delivered. The weather observations at the UW (shown below) indicate that the temperature is about ten degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. To build an extrapolation (i.e., forecast), normally they use the following two-step approach: (1) applying spectral (time series) analysis to decompose the curve into basic functions, (2) composing these functions beyond the historical data. We can use this rule to our advantage here. If you use them and learn how to apply them to your barometric observations, your neighbors and friends will be astounded at your weather forecasting skills. Blues indicates stormy and cold weather, while reds show warm and quiet weather. Watch for a moderation in temperatures over the next several days, as tropical forcing indicates the atmosphere will be favorable for generally warmer than normal weather. Temperatures usually range from 75-90 degrees year round in the daytime, and 70-80 degrees at night.