One and a half years ago, the U.S. Scientists, the United Nations (UN) and activists have been delivering variations of this message for more years than most of us care to remember, and their voices have only grown louder. Radar indicates that other than congealing more into a small line, no strengthening has been observed in the storms themselves, which would indicate there is some resistance in the atmosphere to letting the CAPE win out. Should the CAPE win out and storms develop, they will work their way SE, entering the heavily-hit Chicagoland area overnight yet again, with several more inches of rain possible. There were a few inches of snow during the past 24h, which helps covers the ice layer produced by freezing rain this week in the lower passes. Every day for past seven has had high temperatures over 100 F. Pleasant very early in mornings because of the low RH.

The administration needs to figure out a way to order a large multi-petaflop machine for the National Weather Service, getting past the objections of some bureaucrats about Lenovo computers. Coming out of this massive ridging in the Pacific will be a very negative West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific Oscillation, nicknamed the WPO and EPO respectfully. When that ridge forms, the WPO and EPO are likely to maintain their negative phase, as the negative phase of each index calls for ridging across the Pacific. The GFS Ensemble forecast for the AAM over the next couple of weeks reiterates the trend we have been seeing, with negative angular momentum anomalies keeping a tight grasp on the mid-latitudes in the days ahead. The model increases the PW in response to a tropical disturbance forecast to be moving toward the Pacific off of southern Baja. It’s great to see potential and at least some model agreement, but I’m not comfortable enough with the predicted atmospheric pattern that I will definitely go ahead with this potential storm. So lets focus on the inevitable errors a model will make then just make our forecasts based on current assumptions.

Keep yourself updated with the weather forecasts through television and Internet, and have a fun-filled trip. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves. Just how cold and snowy it will get remains to be seen, but it’s true: the potential is there. Early and mid December is the prime target for some brutally cold weather, along with a side of snow potential. Volvos are pretty sturdy vehicles with their unique side impact protection system but I don’t think they float very well! In a Bank of England survey released today, just 46% said they think the country will leave the EU with a deal next year. Lee also stated that 2019 would be a good year for the cryptocurrency. From a behavioral perspective, the weather has changed its mood since the beginning of the season and certainly since last year. As I’ve mentioned on this blog, weather anomalies over East Asia have been found to affect weather in the United States 6 to 10 days after the occurrence in E. Asia.

East Asia is projected to be rather stormy over the next handful of days into the latter part of early December. With the massive ridge in the Pacific producing the troughing in the west, it all looks primed for a textbook -WPO/-EPO response, with dramatic cold weather anomalies in the Plains that modify and push east with time. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. Perfect day time temps, cool nights, leaves starting to turn. Another hot and very suppressed day yesterday. However, the GEFS ensemble plumes (below from 00 UTC on 20th) indicate an abrupt increase in PW during the day on the 22nd. This would bring back the missing CAPE. It’s convenient, then, that the air traveling west-to-east high up in the atmosphere starts to slow down when it reaches the eastern Equatorial Pacific, and actually begins to descend back to the surface.