The rooftop anemometer at ATMO on campus recorded a gust of 85 mph with these storms and there was minor wind damage reported in Marana to the northwest. My husband’s car had damage to side mirrors and the typical dents. Location is from west of the Tucson Mountains. Summary of yesterday: There were some light sprinkles over central Tucson at midmorning yesterday. The unusual early morning tornadoes resulted in a number of injuries, turned over trucks on I-40, and derailed a train, apparently on the Santa Fe railroad line (now BNSF). Roughly 95% of the total volume of weather information now comes from weather satellites. We’ll now take a look at the upper air flow for the same Wednesday evening timeframe as that CAPE image we just analyzed. You should also take a look at your gas bill to determine whether your heater is working right. Eliminating Overfitting: Black box models don’t always pick up the right kinds of relationships. Thus, the afternoon and evening was devoid of storms over much of southeastern Arizona – the models obviously did not verify well for this part of state. The current GOES PW image (not shown) indicates the presence of this very dry air in northern Sonora, so the models appear to be on track.

Prolonged dry seasons in some parts of the world have resulted into the loss of lives of both animals and the people. Obviously, it didn’t have much effect on our spiritual lives. Yesterday’s PRI for a single day indicates that about 50% as much rainfall occurred yesterday as fell during the entire period from June 15th through September 30th for the greater Phoenix area! June 1954 – Sutton Park, Birmingham. Intense thunderstorms continued this early morning in north-central Arizona with reports of tornadoes near the Flagstaff NWS Office which is actually located west of Flagstaff at Belmont, Arizona. These storms threw out a very large, strong, and dusty outflow that appeared to result in a large are of subsidence over and west of the Tucson area. NAO regime which has been producing a snow drought over the East US. For days and days on end now, the GFS model has been projecting substantial increases in snow cover over a 192 hour period for the Northern Hemisphere.

John reported that power was out for several hoours over there due to downed power poles – so another severe report in the Tucson area. It is the Best Deal out there. First a focus on southeast Arizona – next post will deal with the storms in the Phoenix area and this morning’s tornado just north of the Flagstaff NWS Office. First time Indian time get off in the ground with new cricketers where we will miss seniors and take risk behalf on fresher. Thus, at first glance there would appear to at least some threat of more storms today. However, model forecasts indicate little activity in southern Arizona today. Large upper level low currently stationed across the Western US will provoke a potential severe weather event in the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley today. Main changes in model forecasts have been to slow down the system some, and delay the quick hitting precipitation event into late afternoon and evening. Not completely convinced we see hail threats as advertised by some, including the threat of up to tennis ball-sized hail as per NWS OUN in their hazardous weather outlook posted yesterday.

We see huge chunks of ice falling from the Arctic. The latest snow cover projection over the next 192 hours has been raised to an increase 1.35%, as the fall season takes hold over the Arctic Circle and Siberia. Looking at the observed Arctic Oscillation from December 14th onwards, the trend has been for the observed AO to be more negative than forecasts believed it would be. Photos above are from just after 5 pm to about 6:20 pm (top to bottom) – Kitt Peak looking south (top); Catalinas from Campus (middle); and partial but double rainbow from house (bottom). The bottom photo is from John Diebold and was taken last evening as the intense arc of storms moved northward. Next, John the Baptist, Jesus’ forerunner is imprisoned following his ministry (1:14). This foreshadows Jesus’ destiny as he is arrested and turned over to the high priests and Pharisees. Model guidance troubles will be discussed more in depth in the following sections. Convection-allowing model guidance has been promoting the formation of showers and thunderstorms along the Red River, most notably in southeast Oklahoma in the mid-morning hours today, following expected overnight precipitation and continued moistening of the lower levels.

Today, binary options platform is enjoying the position of the number one trading platform with the highest number of investors. The middle image shows an uncredited photo from the web of one of the thunderstorms moving across portions of Phoenix. Yesterday’s outbreak of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona appears to have been the largest and most severe to occur in a number of years. Several rounds of storms yesterday from south to north across central portions of southeast Arizona. Very active storm day yesterday and still continuing this morning; probably a bigger day than occurred anytime during the summer. Across the ALERT network about 80% of the stations of the stations had rainfall – mostly early this morning, although the southern stations had rain yesterday afternoon also. Surface plots at 0700z show areas of mist and light rain across central and eastern Texas, in line with favored model guidance. Mike Leuthold pointed this out in his morning WRF model forecast discussion, which proved to be right on! Nowadays, there’s no reason not to have your own wireless weather station right in your own home. If you’re a warm weather fan, you want to pray October sees well below average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.