Hurricanes, Fires, Floods, Tornadoes And Earthquakes Do Happen!

Not good for wind generation. I also think that someone could make a good business out of providing regional climate prediction services. In this case, the question is, ‘Will these factors combine to make for an epic severe weather season? Expect warm weather in the West to continue, but possibly edge eastward as the colder weather does begin that winding down trend. December 7-14: The cold pattern should continue, but slowly wind down towards the end of this week. As a result of this highly meridional (wavy) pattern in the Pacific, it looks like we’ll be seeing suppressed high pressure form in the Southwest US, which will lead us into a northwest flow set-up. It looks so beautiful. Lots of variability, but it looks like there will be a small drying (perhaps 1 inch over the summer) by the end of the century. A small increase, again with lots of year to year variability. If you arrive in Spring, late March to early April, you’ll hit the most beautiful flowering time of the year.

If you begin to feel faint at any time, get to a cool, shady spot and sip fluids until you recover. We should run our regional model driven by the next generation of global climate models (CMIP-6) and add physics variability and different start dates to get a wider range of solutions. The Northwest will not dry out under global warming–we will generally get wetter. We see that latest forecasts have the NAO staying negative throughout this timeframe, enhancing the risk that this storm will have a wintry component to it. The East Asian and Bering Sea correlations alone are enough for me to be decently confident in this event occurring, but there are other items that further enhance the probability of a winter storm along the East Coast. Observed temperatures are shown with black dots. Now, let me show you a plot of the annual mean temperatures from all ensemble members at a particular location (in this case Seattle).

Temperatures below freezing will become rare by the end of the century here in Seattle. Here is the are the April 1 snowpack for 1970-1999, 2030-2049, and 2070-2099. Modest declines over the lower-elevation terrain by mid-century. Next, let’s look at changes to our snowpack. Our typical winter day west of the Cascades will have a high around 50F. Cascades snowpack will decline substantially on April 1st (about 50% below today’s value at 5000 ft). Storm surges can reach 25 feet high and be 50-1000 miles wide. Less change on the high terrain in British Columbia. I believe simulations like those shown above will provide major assistance to a society that will have to adapt to a certain amount of climate change. Ohio Valley: Cold, Possible Above Average Precipitation. Mid-Atlantic: Cool, Average Precipitation. Mid-Atlantic: Cold, Average Precipitation. Midwest: Very Cold, Possible Above Average Precipitation. The runs described above represent the best guidance now available for how global warming will influence our region if nothing is done to address greenhouse gas emissions. What are the Best Weather Conditions?

I will start by showing you the difference in conditions between a recent period (1970-1999) and two future periods (2030-2059, 2070-2099). I show such thirty year periods to average out short-term variations that have little to do with climate trends. But by the end of the century (2070-2099, think 2085), the average over the region will be twice that (around 4C increase, about 7F), with considerably more warming in the interior. I don’t think there will be skiing in Snoqualmie Pass in 2085 if the warming is not reduced. I have never heard of Louis Rubin but I will do some research and its something that I will share with others. 1. Empirical research – relies on intensive interpretation of data and come up with conclusion which is capable of being verified through observation/experiment. But this not the kind of thing that the National Science Foundation would support (too applied) and the State of Washington doesn’t support much outside climate research.

And instead of diffusing the tension, senators and congressional representatives in Washington have been fueling it. Now, professional builders have jumped into the real estate market of Goa and are coming up with designer serviced apartments that have been specially made made to suit the needs of senior citizens. Adding to my skepticism is how models are doing really poorly with the conditions in the Pacific right now, where the energy for the main storm and possible secondary low is. Accessing localized weather conditions is one thing while interpreting and displaying it is other. Maybe weather sealing would have helped, maybe not. The results I have shown you above are just the tip of the iceberg on what we can explore with these model runs. Plains: Cold, Possible Above Average Precipitation. Midwest: Cold, Possible Above Average Precipitation. South Plains: Cool, Possible Below Average Precipitation. Triton’s south pole is highly reflective giving Triton the coldest surface known in our solar system. Southeast: Cool, Average Precipitation. Northeast: Cool, Average Precipitation. By the end of the century, the precipitation increases are more dramatic. By the end of the century, there will be substantial warming, with the average summer day around Puget Sound climbing into the mid-80s, rather that the upper 70s of today.