Won’t that cause extreme precipitation to increase? Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses. 3. Far better data assimilation, including enhanced use of satellite imagery. Our data assimilation systems (how one uses observations to create a physically realistic 3D description of the atmosphere) were 10-20 years behind ECMWF. According to National Weather Service weather data, on January 12, 1963, the recorded high temperature did not exceed 29 degrees Fahrenheit, the lowest high measured in Las Vegas in the past 62 years. And when conditions are present for the development of particularly powerful supercell thunderstorms, the National Weather Service will issue a tornado watch for the affected region. Ticks are one of the most well-known hiking pests. And one can easily think of scenarios where there will be a decline of extreme precipitation and storms.

Storms such as the Inauguration Day Storm and Chanukah Eve storm? Fascinatingly, the pattern is the same over the past half-century— upward trend over Washington and northern Oregon and decreasing frequency of such storms to the south. BC show weak upward trend. Up arrows indicate increasing trend, down arrows, declining trend for max annual river discharge. Well, we looked at the trends over the same period of maximum annual discharge of unregulated rivers (see figure below). Importantly, we got the same pattern! On the other hand, northern Oregon and WA have seen an increase in the big rainstorms. Decline over southern Oregon and northern CA, increase to the north. Western Australia is bounded by South Australia and the Northern Territory to the east, and the Indian Ocean to the west and north. So there is no uniform change in extreme precipitation along the West Coast: some places are up and some are down. Here are the top 5 most influential ones among them.

Specifically we looked at the trends for the top 20, 40, and 60 events of two-day precipitation. So Ivar’s Mukilteo Landing is clearly my top choice. Most climate models indicate the jet stream will move northward under global warming. Others want to run the poorly performing Climate Forecast System (CFS) model out to 15 months (currently only 9 months). Shown above is the first member of the CFS suite, showing precipitation accumulated over the next 45 days. 1. High resolution convection-allowing ensembles over the continental U.S., which could radically improve forecasting of thunderstorms. 2. Much higher resolution global ensembles (at perhaps 15-20 km), which would greatly improve probabilistic global prediction. One machine handles the operational weather prediction models, the other is for backup and research. A prediction from a machine learning perspective is a single point that hides the uncertainty of that prediction. Each runs at 2.9 petaflops (a quadrillion floating point operations per second).

If the simulator runs low on memory, it will terminate. The average year-round high temperature for this resort destination is nearly 88 degrees Fahrenheit and the average low temperature is just less than 74 degrees, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Temperatures of 80 degrees are favorable for the spread of this fungus as well as warm rainy weather. Maximum summer temperatures hover around 85 degrees. But to get maximum advantage from these new computers, their immense capacity needs to be used wisely. We will suggest powerful and result oriented methods to yield maximum profit from the market. But the embarrassment of inferior forecasts (such as Superstorm Sandy), encouraged Congress and NOAA management to finally deal with the situation and the new computers were one result. There are plans to add an unproven NAM-RR system (Rapid Refresh system using the inferior NMM model) that will waste huge amount of resources. The ensemble systems we used were too small, producing inferior probabilistic forecasts. There are some folks in the National Weather Service,who want to hold on to outdated legacy systems (such as their Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system and their poorly performing NMMB modeling system). I have strong opinions on what wise use would mean, based on studying this issue for years and from my serving on a national advisory committee to the National Weather Service (UMAC).