The clinical outcome prediction information should not be used as a substitute for medical advice, diagnosis or treatment of any health condition or problem. The ITAP model discovers the identity attributes most vulnerable to theft, assesses their importance, and determines the personally identifying information (PII) most frequently targeted by thieves. We can use long range model guidance to our advantage here. As this projection shows, the model guidance doesn’t exactly have a consensus nailed down, though that’s to be expected with the massive uncertainty that comes with long-range forecasting. The image above shows a number of global forecasting systems (called a ‘plume’ projection, in this case), projecting the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon from now until next spring. A glance at the 30-day sunspot numbers over the past year or so shows how we’ve been experiencing a gradual decline in sunspot numbers over the past several months. However, in the following first days of April, the SOI spiked back to neutral, then to positive for another few months.

In a decade or two, this may have profound effects on the weather as we know it, but let’s stick to the next several months for now. Now, however, we have the Kelvin Wave-induced waters pushing to the surface at a time when the SOI has been negative since the first days of July. The graphic above shows us anomalies for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from January 2012 to present day. This past April, when the record-breaking Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific, the SOI was definitely below that negative-8 threshold. These past few years, the maximum smoothed values has only just surpassed 75, meaning we are in a very quiet cycle. Not only does changing the size of the table change the performance of a predictor, it also changes which predictors are better relative to each other. “Hazardous travel conditions are expected from the Rockies to the Northern Plains due to heavy snow and strong winds – with localised blizzard conditions – through this weekend.

Some activity has been picking up in recent days, but in due time, likely in the next several weeks, activity is expected to once again quiet down. If you are determined to get down to the bottom to see the magnificent waterfalls and caves (trust me, it is worth it!) just take your time and rest along the way back up. I created this year’s analogs out of a four chosen long range predictors, before using personal judgement and individual examinations to narrow it down to my four analog years. Now, it’s time for our final portion of the analysis section for the Official 2014-2015 Winter Forecast: the Analogs. It looks like the analogs are seeing the polar vortex positioned right over the Northeastern United States. This warmth prohibits the polar vortex from strengthening too much (since it is also located in the stratosphere), which then leads to upper latitude blocking, and then additional opportunities for colder than normal winters. Most of the Plains tend to observe neutral anomalies (a paradoxical phrase, but bear with me), while the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and Ohio Valley regions tend to see drier than normal winters.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is what makes these positive and negative anomalies flip on a regular basis. All gray shadings indicate the presence of positive zonal wind anomalies, while white contours depict negative zonal wind anomalies. Only slightly above-normal precipitation anomalies are observed in Florida. Wind batters the island constantly which partially explains the lack of growth but the summer wild flowers are beautiful. The island is most popular with visitors in July. The sun is expected to remain anomalously weak as we head into this winter, setting the stage for another exciting time in the stratosphere. In addition, you spend a lot of time and energy to remove those stubborn stains, right? On the precipitation front, weak El Nino’s will normally bring very dry conditions to the Pacific Northwest, with wetter than normal conditions to the state of California (something badly needed right now for that area). Douglass said that politicians had no right to force moral standards on society as a whole.