And as I will describe below, most weather-related wildfire deaths can be avoided if fire agencies are willing to apply current generation observing and forecasting technologies, while enhancing critically needed personnel. The Yarnell fire deaths were associated with the outflow boundary of cooler air emanating from thunderstorms to the northeast, something evident from weather radar imagery and regional surface observations. Furthermore, many of the deaths occurred for relatively new and small fires, fires for which no incident meteorologist had been assigned (Incident Meteorologists (IMETs) are forecasters specially trained to work during severe wildfire outbreaks). Recently, I listened to an excellent presentation on “tragedy fires” at the Northwest Weather Workshop that was given by Andy Haner, an experienced National Weather Service meteorologist specializing in wildfire prediction. As someone who specializes in local weather in the western U.S., regional weather prediction, and the effects of terrain on regional flow patterns, I have always been interested in the weather associated with major wildland fires.

I have also been talking about a January 24-28 winter storm that may be either an Apps Runner or Nor’easter per my latest post. Depending on the Pacific pattern, some cold air may be available to sweep east into the Northeast if an early February coastal storm does come to fruition. However, we see some stormy weather just to the east of Greenland, and that tells me that the chances of seeing prolonged cold outbreaks and persistent west coast ridging are low. An early Super Bowl forecast: Be on the lookout for a storm system on the East Coast in the couple days after the big game. Choose any date between 100AD and up to 50 years in the future and access tide predictions for 7 or 14 days at a time. This image shows observed weather on November 27th. We can use data from the past to predict the future by utilizing the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). But how get this rich data to pilots? As I noted in a blog last month, most pilots do not have access to the full range of critical, real-time weather information when they are airborne.

Despite this, long range indices tell me we could see some continued stormy weather, and I’ll be monitoring that potential in coming days and weeks. Considering this LRC season cycle length is 57 days, give or take a day or two, we can extrapolate November 27th out 57 days to get the reoccurrence of this coastal storm system. Just because a psychic doesn’t waste your time with one prediction after another does not mean a psychic can’t give you valuable assistance. The colors give radar intensity, with red being intense echoes (heavy rain, hail). Take Delta Flight 1889, which went into a strong thunderstorm with big hail last August, smashing the windshield and destroying the nose cone. For our last forecasting indice, we have the Pacific North American index, or PNA. Professor Elizabeth Barnes and colleagues of Colorado State University have published a paper that analyzed the output of a large collection of climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gases.

The latest forecast models suggest that exactly this kind of transition is about to occur, with a major circulation shift that will dry out the NW and increase precipitation over California. The Twisp disaster was connected with a windshift, associated with cooler air moving across the Casacades, that was predicted by regional weather prediction models and was evident in real time from surface observations. Figure 7 shows numbers of predicted gene pairs (with P ≥ 0.98) scaled by the number of genes in each of 34 genomes. ECMWF Ensemble 500mb height anomaly guidance for January 24th shows us that the nation would be in for a cold but progressive weather pattern. The top panel of the graphic below shows such anomalies, with raw temperatures displayed on the bottom panel. Above normal temperatures are known as El Nino’s, and below normal sea temperatures are referred to as La Nina’s. The Kansas Department of Transportation said multiple roads are partially or completely snow covered.