Here at house we have been having sprinkles with wind gusts around 30 to perhaps 35 mph. Here is where we employ the Bering Sea Rule, a rule created by Joe Renken after his observation of storm patterns in the Bering Sea and the United States. The storm will not trend west and stay mostly off shore. If you wear a hat, you will keep your feet warm! Make a warm and cozy dog house for your canine friend that will keep him safe and dry. This dog house would even make a great playhouse for your little one. If that happens, storm systems may sweep south through the Southwest and eject into Texas and make for some severe weather. The latest 5 day 500mb height forecast from the Weather Prediction Center over Alaska shows a storm system entering the Bering Sea on December 30th, as the ‘L’ on the bottom center panel shows.

It is stated that a storm system in the Bering Sea then results in a storm system for the United States approximately 2.5 to 3 weeks later, or 17-21 days later. This is the forecast from the 12z ECMWF ensemble prediction system (also known as the ECMWF EPS). The 06 UTC runs of the WRF models at Atmo forecast mostly light rainfall around the metro through midnight tonight (just below). But both versions of the model forecast more significant rainfall for our area, and all of state, through 11:00 am on Thursday the 29th (bottom panel). The bottom line: there is a direct connection between the rain shadow and the strong southerly winds, with both forced by sinking on the lee (eastern) side of the Olympics. With westerly and southwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere, the air rose on the western sides of the Olympics and coastal mountains, producing precipitation.

With strong southwesterly/westerly flow approaching the Olympics, there was substantial sinking on the eastern and northeast sides of the barrier. You notice the extreme pressure gradients around the storm, particular on the south and west sides? I will say however, the models did a great job with this storm, very consistent since the end of last week. Based on orthogonalization of the space of candidate predictors, we can approximate the posterior probabilities of models by products of predictor-specific terms. Here, in a CFS four-member ensemble forecasts developed by Kyle MacRitchie, we see the long range projection of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, in its eight-phase phase space diagram. The Bering Sea Rule isn’t the only long range piece of guidance we can use to detect a potential storm. Also superimposed are the long range trend for tornadoes as well as 2012’s tornado reports. ANOVA, Analysis of Variance, is a test to determine whether the means of several groups are equal.

Now I know the updates have gotten more sparse and we are expecting some winter weather to return to the region, so my apologies for the lack of updates. Now consider what a greenhouse can do for you and your hobby. And is there anybody, you know, on deck to be the President of the United States who can actually say, “This is important — we’ve got to do this now”? But the SREF has handled all storms in short-range quite well, so there is much reasoning behind new thinking. Recent forecasts have been predicting a changeover in portions of the Great Lakes from Frzg Rain to Rain, but a run of the SREF somewhat objects to this. Below is the SREF take on the chance for freezing rain turning into rain. 3 hours later, the probability of freezing rain into rain has gone down and is much less disorganized. In the image around one day from now, we see a somewhat elevated risk of freezing rain turning into rain.