500-millibar geopotential height anomalies when the MJO is in Phase 4 during the month of June. Instead of merely topping off around Anchorage, the positive anomalies extend well into Alaska, and join up with another ridge based in Canada, the combination of which then pushes into the Arctic Circle. Now shown immediately above, Figure 40 shows observed Arctic Oscillation index values since late March, giving us a glimpse at how the oscillation has behaved as of late. For a refresher on the concept of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and how to dissect a phase-space diagram, feel free to read this post from earlier. This ESRL forecast builds on that by anticipating the PNA oscillation to remain in negative territory until the turn of the month. When broadening out beyond the trough along the western coast of the continent, the ridge that is expected to send the PNA into strong positive territory is seen, now having retrograded slightly into the Gulf of Alaska. PNA might not be as sturdy as the teleconnection forecast shows because of a strong upper level low just to the west of North America, or something along those lines).

The image above shows the latest 500mb height anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere on the left, with cloud cover, pressure contours and high/low pressure denotations on the right. RIGHT FOR OUR NAUBDS. When the MJO is in Phase 4 during the month of June, positive height anomalies tend to be favored over the Gulf of Alaska into parts of the Aleutian Islands, with another area of positive height anomalies over Greenland. We are able to see how the atmosphere typically acts when the MJO is in Phase 4 for the month of June below. All told, this provides a good basis for my outlook for the remainder of June. PNA/-NAO pattern through much of the remainder of June, particularly since the MJO moving into Phase 4 would support exactly this kind of pattern to continue. Again, the pattern we discussed above would strongly support this solution. I have a feeling such a storm cutting north would result in not only a northern Plains snowstorm, but also a severe weather event for the Central US, something I discussed in yesterday’s post.

If you’re thinking that this Phase 4 composite above looks remarkably similar to the forecasted pattern beginning around June 11th, as discussed earlier in this post, you aren’t the only one. Forecasted 500-millibar geopotential height anomalies valid 7am Central, June 21st, with annotations. Anomalies show the ‘warm part’, the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave moving eastward at a depth of about 100 to 200 meters. Below-normal anomalies are then painted across a good swath of the eastern two-thirds of North America. All of these factors combined are a good indicator of potential rotating supercell storms. The NCERT Solution Class 9 for Maths will really help the students to get good practice in doing math problems and thus get a good base for the subject. A low pressure system in south Canada with a trough extending south will also provide a base for showers and potential storms. A trough will ignite some isolated showers and a small potential for thunderstorms in the Northeast. I agree most of our energy production will come from renewable sources, solar being a big contributer.Already the cost of solar power is approaching parity with fossil fuel generation. We will see anomalously warm and humid conditions present across the Central and Eastern US as the jet stream bends north to accommodate for the ridging out East.

As we head into the last days of February, ensembles give the Central and East US another shot of cold weather, as shown by the GFS Ensembles’ portrayal of the trough at the 500mb level on the left panel. Notice along with the below normal temps shown on the east coast, there is also an enormous amount of cold air building up in central and western Canada. Through the middle of June, I expect colder than normal conditions to evolve for the eastern two-thirds of the country. So, the negative NAO pattern keeps colder than normal conditions in place over the Northeast U.S., Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic. That will make the North Plains, Midwest and West Great Lakes a wet area for tomorrow, ruling out their chances to be nominated as the Place to Be. Locally, this means warm weather continues for the Plains, with that ridge still not budging, as well as warmer weather in the Midwest and Northeast.