For the most current conditions, warnings and advisories, go to the National Weather Service-Salt Lake City office website. Tornado Warnings will be issued as needed. After making nice additions on defense, and signing Thomas Jones at running back, this team will be better than they were last year. It would be nice to get the fruits of its labor but through Wednesday it will be depositing its snow farther west. Any system toward the middle or end of next week could still bring snow but it might be asking a lot to say that it looks good for powder since the snow could be wet in nature. Inside, it is a good idea to always leave a tap dripping slowly. The idea of highlighting the maximum updraft helicity values is to identify where potentially tornadic supercells may strike for this severe weather event. This turn however appears more gradual as opposed to abrupt and it may take a few days before we see new natural snow.

The pattern does take a turn for the more favorable later in the week in response to a deepening eastern U.S. At Aulis, Calchas would predict that the war to take Troy would last ten years. We don’t take the seasons for granted and around every corner there is something new. There are series of impulses within this trough and the passage of each of these will bring colder weather to the region. Such a state encourages a trough in the western part of North America (similar to last year). If Isaac happens to be in a situation where the trough does influence the system, Isaac would likely make a more easterly landfall. We will update continuously as the situation evolves and as Mad River Glen decides how and when it decides to open. There are a set of negatives that accompany the perceived improvements with the ENSO situation. As you have your own odds and can easily find those from your favourite bookie, it is a simple process of comparing the two and seeing where the bookies’ odds are higher.

However, we can use certain tools to help us while we are trading stocks. When the QBO is in its positive phase, these positive zonal winds / westerlies are strengthened in the stratosphere, as is shown in the red circle. The Pacific-North American (PNA) index is making a run into positive territory while the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to want to throw an all out negative-state bash. The Pacific North American (PNA) index is projected to be deeply negative in the short term, meaning deep troughing across the West US. The index used to measure the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains very negative. The ENSO describes the state of the equatorial Pacific and an ENSO event includes the likes of an El Nino or La Nina which is synonymous with sea surface temperatures that are running above or below average respectively. This years temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are closer to average, a sharp contrast to last year where clearly La Nina was clearly establishing itself as an early and dominant force on the weather. By Thanksgiving day and then on Friday, some of this upper level energy will get booted eastward and this should allow for a slow decline in temperatures on the mountain and accumulating snow of the light and elevation induced variety.

Temperatures will run above the 30-year average for the winter by about 2 degrees and we will likely encounter a real mild stretch that could cripple skiing for a few weeks. The next chance at a real significant event arrives Sunday night into early Monday. Additional TIS type snow is possible Friday night into early Saturday and with the colder weather in place, it could set us up for a decent day of skiing. Colder weather Friday and the arrival of yet another disturbance should at that point bring some snow although its difficult to envision amounts. The ridge west/trough east regime should get one more re-enforcement early next week which offers the possibility of some additional new snow. With the lack of a strong southeast ridge, I would expect the storm track to be further south and the weather pattern to resemble the current one for long stretches of the winter (more on that later).