So you’ve heard my reasoning behind why the second half of December could get extremely cold, but not the significant winter storms. What’s the reasoning behind that? The Lezak Recurring Cycle also appears to be throwing its support behind a mid-late December colder trend. Even if there is a minor issue with your roof, as soon as the weather turns colder and icier, those small issues can become major. Sure, global warming might be making things a bit warmer, but these major weather/climate events are clearly associated with natural variability. To make a long story short, it was easier to maintain the blog when you are unemployed and in search of things to do. Things are looking up for a cool start to winter. I am sorry to hear that you are going through this situation. We will definitely have to watch this situation for tornadoes. A similar situation happens with the anticyclonic jet stream- the high pressure system pushes up into the upper latitudes, and adjacent dips in the jet stream develop as the wave penetrates further into the upper latitudes.

Well, here’s the composite image for mid-level height anomalies for a December Phase 5 MJO wave. The long range OLR forecast then tells us the MJO will progress into Phase 6, and look at what the December mid-level geopotential height composite for the Phase 6 MJO shows us. Take a look at this composite above, developed by Allan Huffman. A look at frontal positions and surface observations as of this typing reveals a low pressure system in southeastern South Dakota, with a strength of 998 millibars. South Plains: Turbulent temperatures in first half of March, gradually turning warmer. For example, if you look at the study’s link on Page 4 at the first image under ‘3. They are easy to spot as they look a bit like newspaper kiosks except with a queue of people outside waiting at the serving window. To be put it differently, how far in the future will the average summer be like the summer we just went through?

By Sunday afternoon, the system of frontal boundaries and primary low pressure system will move to the east and north, with the low pressure system ending up in the Wisconsin-Michigan vicinity by the afternoon hours. When the MJO weakens again, the Rossby Waves should gradually shift east before they really get pushed east, and that’s where the real fun begins. However, once again, keep in mind we are only beginning to check out tropical cyclone ingredients and will likely be wrong on some counts of parameters or guesses. When planning your European trip, check your arrival and departures dates and see if they take into account peak, off-peak and shoulder travel periods. The man of today is lazy and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. The highest severe weather threat for today appears to rely on the continued eastward progression and consolidation of the aforementioned dryline. Our skin is exposed to various environmental conditions like pollution and cold weather.

There could (keyword is COULD!) be an atmospheric pattern evolving that may be setting up for some severe cold weather and potentially significant winter storms for the latter half of December. This is because during exercise in the cold weather the body tries to generate heat on its own through the uncontrolled muscle contraction. The highest level of severe weather highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday is a Slight Risk, a level 2 out of 5 on the agency’s risk scale. While this is lower than the Enhanced Risk, notable severe weather events have occurred in Slight Risk areas multiple times before. Additional severe weather is possible north of the Enhanced Risk area, although with a lower reservoir of instability and relatively weaker forcing for storms, the risk is understandably downgraded to Slight for areas in the Plains and Midwest. This season, we will have a cycle length of 57 days, meaning the weather pattern on October 19th should correlate similarly to the weather pattern on December 15th, 57 days later. I will be tracking Siberia through October to see what else we can expect for this winter. Likewise, the October 22 weather pattern should come back around on December 18th. This time period has a deep depression in the jet stream, along with ridging in the West.