It is uncommon to see such strong wind values, and such values are only associated with the stronger types of storm systems, including negatively tilted systems like this one. This chart shows typical alignment of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) values by MJO phase in the west-central Equatorial Pacific. I am seeing high moisture values ahead of this front so expect periods of heavy showers and some storms tonight through tomorrow. The low at this time is just south of Cape Cod, with heavy snow and strong winds over coastal Massachusetts. There is a high probability that the weather gods will deliver substantial snow to our region before the holidays. In the midst of that cold blast, some precipitation may still be ongoing on the back of that low, introducing the seasons first snow flurries for the region. This should be a cold event lasting anywhere from 2-5 days for the USA. However, even that prospect is quickly fading, as we see a strengthening of the upper polar vortex in coming days and weeks.

In order to deem an event a true SSW, wind direction in the stratosphere must either significantly slow or even reverse, in addition to intense warming of temperatures. What makes this even worse is that the U.S. We see our current Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave moving eastward to the 180 degree longitude mark by around the 18th of January. 2. This is a small slice of the Pacific located between the Equator and the 10º South latitude line, extending from the far western tip of Peru to the 90º West longitude line. Notice that we see negative OLR anomalies (blue colors) in the hovmoller diagram around January 21st near that 50E longitude line, which matches up with Phase 1 (top-left panel) in this graphic immediately above. We see the MJO stalling out around the 160E longitude mark. If you are out walking, pack a cold water bottle just for your dog and stop often to encourage your dog to drink. On Saturday evening, the lower level winds look to be absolutely screaming, with winds maxing out at 70 knots, with some spots going into the 80 knot threshold.

This image shows surface-based instability, which is essential for thunderstorms to get going. This image is valid for the afternoon of Wednesday. Projected radar reflectivity for Wednesday evening shows the development of a nasty squall line stretching from Oklahoma into Texas. Regardless of the biggest threat, it’s certainly looking like a severe weather event will unfold on Wednesday. A negative tilt means the system has its winds pointed towards the southeast, like is shown above. In fact, those model development groups ARE NOT IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE but rather in NOAA, mainly at the Earth System Research Lab (ESRL in Boulder) and GFDL in Princeton. Thunderstorm development is expected to commence in the late afternoon hours after the layer of stability erodes. This stretch of high instability is slightly different from the SPC outlook in that the most able regions for thunderstorm development are just a hair east of the outlook proposed by the SPC, especially in Oklahoma. The NAM model shows a rather small region of high instability over central Texas, extending into central Oklahoma.

If the PNA were negative like the ECMWF is showing, high pressure would build in over the Southeast and provoke a storm track more tailored to the Plains, like we saw earlier in the month. War is Peace happened during the Bush Era, Bush told us “That we must fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” (The Herald). Rubber waders will always have a place in the outdoor world. In the village too the sky makes the world stop, plans delayed, schedules trapped in tea shops and houses and mosques. Notice how we see our ongoing MJO wave fading near the 21st of January with the dissipation of negative OLR anomalies, as well as our second wave forming well off to the west. Due to such low confidence, we’re only going to look at the long range OLR forecast as an indicator of what may come, not necessarily as something that’s “set in stone”. Goo lighting also lights up the mood in your office and motivates you to keep going.

Wind shear is, in simple terms, wind going in different directions at different strengths. This is a map of surface-850mb wind shear. The more wind shear there is, the higher the chance of some tornadic activity. Next, we need to recognize that the solid colors here are merely showing the same thing we’ve looked at three times now: convective activity. 10% probability that activity on the Sun will decrease producing grand minimum conditions during the next 40 years. In this case, decrease in price is the cause and rise in demand is its effect. Making predictions is a strategy in which readers use information from a text (including titles, headings, pictures, and diagrams) and their own personal experiences to anticipate what they are about to read (or what comes next). I believe that the Midwest will get the worst of this event, but a fairly large area, including part of the Plains, is at risk for a tornado outbreak.