Tag Archives: modeling

Space Weather Modeling Framework: A New Tool For The Space Science Community

As this happens, and we see extratropical cyclone formation on the surface (as indicated by the tight black SLP contours in the image above), pressures will lower just west of the Gulf of Alaska, even into the basin itself. The image above shows the GFS model’s forecasted jet stream wind speeds (colored regions), mean sea level pressure (black contours), and 1000-500mb thickness values (dashed red and blue lines). The image above once again shows 500mb height anomalies from the GFS ensembles, now valid on December 6th. Notice that we still see below-normal heights over Japan. Days aren’t too hot, except for a few hours around the noon, and evenings are still pleasant – not too chilly. If this ECMWF forecast verified, the chances of a chilly mid-December would likely be on the decline. Of course, that East Asian component would play a role, but this ECMWF forecast could very well dampen the cold in areas. For now, we see the United Kingdom’s UKMET and Japan’s JMA model guidance supporting a GFS ensemble-like solution, where the MJO would move into those latter phases supportive of a cold weather event.

The forecast s valid for the morning of December 7th, and tells us a lot about the coming weather pattern. Proposed New NWS Forescast Zones – The NWS proposes to change the southeast Arizona forecast zones this coming October. The change breaks out the principal mountain ranges as separate forecast zones, which certainly makes sense wrt climate zones and weather. Long before there was Doppler radar and weather apps for smart phones, people looked to weathervanes for predicting changes in the weather. Importantly, there is no reason that sudden windshifts, the source of many of the wildfire tragedies, can not be diagnosed and forecast. The United Kingdom’s forecast model agrees with the American solution, but the UK’s model usually is not the best with forecasting storm systems. The graphic above shows the same Madden-Julian Oscillation forecast as the GFS Ensemble one above, but this one now shows the forecast from the prestigious European model, abbreviated as the ECMWF ensembles. The image above shows the projected phase space for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) off the GFS Ensembles. The image above shows the last week or so of temperature anomalies over the North Hemisphere at the 10 millibar level. Your choice must serve its purpose and also should last for a long period of time.

These two factors make for a hard time in getting thunderstorms to form. The American Medical Association (AMA) will make a major announcement that will send shock waves around the world. Follow the phase of the moon and you can successfully predict when the fish will be biting. The GFS Ensembles predict the MJO to translate eastward with time, shown well by the quick movement through Phases 4, 5, 6, and 7, arriving in Phase 8 around the mid-December timeframe. Each triangle-esque shape represents a specific phase of the MJO, with the phases number 1 through 8 on the exterior of each shape. Typically, in the winter, cold weather is favored in the Central/East US when the MJO is in Phases 7, 8, 1 and 2, while warmer weather prevails in the remaining stages. The ability to simulate and eventually predict space weather phenomena is important for many applications, for instance, the success of spacecraft missions and the reliability of satellite communication equipment.

It is applicable on phenomena that can be expressed in terms of quantity like population data. If we recall the Typhoon Rule, which states weather phenomena occurring over East Asia is reciprocated in the United States about 6-10 days later, we could expect a bout of substantial cold here at home in the December 7-11 timeframe. Simply use the button in the upper right to enter new regions and even choose the weather station you’d like information from. There was no way I could finish Twilight and not have the next of the Saga, New Moon, to start reading right absent. And there are many more observing and forecasting resources that I have not mentioned. Cages, food, temperature, activity and bird interaction are the finches basic needs. These tools facilitate you to check the temperature, humidity, rainfall and snowfall predictions about any place by simply reading the predictions. From the site you would get the best kind of astrological predictions for you and would also be able to get the best way outs from any problem. One problem to the solution can be buying more equipment and machine to clear snow in time though it’s not a long term solution.