The big weather uncertainties are what will happen from now through Labor Day. You should avoid spending long periods of time in exposed parts of the island during the hottest part of the day. Culebra island offers many things to see and will make your vacation one to remember! This is an issue I have mentioned briefly in previous blogs, and one many of you have asked to learn more about. If they somehow turned off our weather forecasts, we would always have the European Center, the Canadian model , the UKMET office model , and the forecasts from the U.S. Looking over model guidance for southern Texas, we certainly have enough instability present, as the above graphic shows. In Lotto Texas, there are 25,827,165 possible outcomes so, how many drawings do you think it will take before lottery numbers realistically approach their expected mean? Take a look at this forecast from the ECMWF ensembles. Take a look at this composite above, developed by Allan Huffman.

Well, here’s the composite image for mid-level height anomalies for a December Phase 5 MJO wave. The long range OLR forecast then tells us the MJO will progress into Phase 6, and look at what the December mid-level geopotential height composite for the Phase 6 MJO shows us. This shows the mid-level geopotential height anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere during a December Phase 3 MJO. This season, we will have a cycle length of 57 days, meaning the weather pattern on October 19th should correlate similarly to the weather pattern on December 15th, 57 days later. This brings about a pattern similar to the negative-PNA pattern that we have discussed rather extensively in this post, and seems to encourage the idea that the pattern forecasted to end May could continue into the opening portion of June. Taking a look at the graphic at the top of this post, we see the blue oval near the bottom of the image starting out at the 120E longitude line.

Furthermore, our friends out west have been hurting so far this winter as the season has started out both warm and very snowless. The ridging is now steadily fixated in the Gulf of Alaska, now knocking on the door of the West Coast of the United States. It’s now time to analyze the next piece in the winter forecast puzzle- the SAI. So you’ve heard my reasoning behind why the second half of December could get extremely cold, but not the significant winter storms. There could (keyword is COULD!) be an atmospheric pattern evolving that may be setting up for some severe cold weather and potentially significant winter storms for the latter half of December. The weather pattern then favors potentially brutal cold in the nation for the mid-late December period. This opportunity may be increased further by the presence of an intersecting occluded front, warm front and cold front to make an infamous ‘triple point’, where some of the worst tornadoes have been recorded. I’m thinking that there may be an opportunity for some severe weather if the warm front stretches out further east on the southernmost low pressure system.

Glancing at the NCEP ensembles gives me the feeling that this will be too far out to sea if current forecasts verified from the GFS. GFS and ECMWF appear to have initialized with little or no problems. The ECMWF appears a tad slower and a tad weaker than the GFS for this storm as well, so I will leave the situation alone until a closer timeframe when things become easier to look at. Price, quality and durability are the three most important things people tend to keep in mind while purchasing any kind of clothing item for them. At this time, all things possible or conceived will occur at once. 8. Right to parenthood: “Those who want to have children will require a license or a permit. This article provides a step-by-step sequence for teachers who wish to create a directed reading thinking activity with any type of text. First – yesterday had some thunderstorm activity in southeastern Arizona, especially along the Borderlands south and southwest of Tucson.

Down at 700 mb there is an anticyclone over northeastern Mexico and a weak trough extends from southwest Texas westward to northen Baja. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is predicted to move into favorable phases for pushing a large, repetitive anticyclone east towards the US. The Rossby Wave involves either a large high or low pressure system pushing up into the upper latitudes (in the case of an anticyclonic Rossby Wave) or pushing down towards the mid-latitudes (in the case of a cyclonic Rossby Wave). You should keep all of your reservation tickets and receipts until the flight is over in case there are any problems. In case you didn’t get any of that, here’s the summary. Get self WATERPROOF shoes, pants and jacket. When the MJO weakens again, the Rossby Waves should gradually shift east before they really get pushed east, and that’s where the real fun begins. Time out the route to any planned emergency shelter location so you’ll be certain that you can get there in time any time a tornado warning is issued. James has handed out hundreds of fliers while canvassing the neighborhoods where his daughter went missing.