The negative phases of these indexes both allow cold air to push into the United States, and the negative NAO permits the storm track to push north and threaten the East Coast with more coastal snowstorms. We see warm weather dominating the northern United States, maximized in the northern Plains. Rather than most of the United States being warmer than normal, the negative AO and NAO seem to influence temperatures to be well below normal across much of the nation, maximized in the southern Plains. In negative PNA patterns, low pressure dominates the West US, leading to warm weather in the Central and East US. This sort of temperature pattern is typically associated with an El Nino, where we see warmer than normal weather in the Northern US, with cooler than normal weather in the South or West US. Our storm system is shown in the West US, with high pressure in the East.

We have low pressure in the area, and that can instigate high pressure response in the Southeast US, which would go hand in hand with the American model solution above. It’s times like these when you have to stop looking at the models and think about how the atmosphere works. And in all honesty, the models are worthless. My thinking is that this storm is going to hit areas that the models were in good agreement yesterday. I expect we will see model agreement come Wednesday evening when the system gets onshore. That final piece to the puzzle will be a bit more difficult to come by, as that strong upper level low over Greenland will try to keep the flow over North America very zonal (west-to-east, jet stream not wavy). The problem starts tomorrow when an upper level low pressure system will slide into our area as shown below..

Also, it can oppress formation of the Southeast Ridge that the West Coast low pressure is trying to do. First, we’ll start in the West US. As a consequence the flight from east to west can be substantially quicker! When this storm system hits the West Coast and shifts south, it is typical to see high pressure arise in the East. In this image, which shows 500mb height anomalies averaged out across these 9 analog winters, we see significant negative height anomalies across the western coast of North America, defining a textbook negative-Pacific North American index (PNA) pattern. AI is able to learn the buying patterns of the customers respectively and shows the related products according to their choice, as done by AMAZON. The image above shows 500mb height anomalies across the northern hemisphere, where cool colors signify stormy and cool weather. Warm colors define the presence of warm and quiet weather.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was also negative to a lesser degree and helped provide support for sustained periods of colder weather in eastern North America. This exemplifies the negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This is what’s known as an east-based negative NAO. You can probably figure out why it’s named east-based, but the negative NAO infers high pressure is in place in Greenland. Don’t get me wrong here, they can, but in a river, does water try to go to the place where it will get stuck? If this storm was a leaf that had fallen off a tree and into a river, would it want to move towards the rock in the river or towards the open river channel? If you think it wants to move towards the open channel, you’ve just explained the big paragraph I typed above. No, it goes towards the most open part of the river to keep on moving. In times like these, I like to use my aforementioned river analogy.

Events like transfers, suspensions and injuries are also factored in. I stlll like him. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. This dilemma is shown on the 500 millibar forecast from the American ensemble prediction system above. The table of prediction bits is two-dimensional. Using these new resources wisely, the NWS operational can jump to world leadership capability in numerical weather prediction and radically improve the products it provides to U.S. At any point our consistent on-shore flow from the Pacific Ocean can be pushed out buy droves of cold, arctic are funneled from the east through the Gorge and back through the valley. Sure this could develop well inland but my point is it all depends on how much this cold air presses east. WEDNESDAY: Sunny, breezy, cold and dry.