Terror Along Tornado Alley

The frequent number set includes the 6 least frequently drawn numbers and the 6 most frequently drawn lotto numbers. A number of verification systems that have been used will be described, but it is beyond the scope of this paper to make a complete survey of verification practices or of the literature on the subject. In reality, it is very difficult to make an accurate prediction as to where rates are going. After a relatively calm November through January in the stratosphere, what’s going on up there? Do you see what’s going on here? If you take another look at yesterday’s Thanksgiving post (click here), you’ll see how the MJO is moving in to a favorable position for cold and wet weather across the East US in the Thanksgiving Day time period. The beaches and islands of Malaysia literally sparkle during day and night which makes it a paradise for the visitors and the visitors can also enjoy a wide variety of leisure activities such as site-seeing, dancing and singing. In this sense, we can use the long-term weather pattern over Japan to predict when some seasonal, warmer weather will arrive in the US.

However, in the last few weeks, we’ve started seeing those warmer water anomalies wane, and even be replaced by cooler than normal anomalies. Looking at Japan, we see sustained high pressure and warmer than normal weather still over the area. We see 500mb height anomalies from the GFS Ensembles over the Western Pacific. Fast-forward to the GFS Ensemble forecast on March 27th. Once again, we’re looking at 500mb height anomalies over the Western Pacific. The period starting November 1st and ending March 31st was approximately 4 degrees below average and every month within that period was below average, culminating in March which was nearly 10 below average. This is the 500mb forecast for November 24 at the very end of the GFS’ forecast period. As you can see, the US is relatively uninteresting at this time period of November the 13th. However, take a look over at East Asia in the upper left hand corner of the image above. The image above shows a six-panel graphic, each marking a day’s observation of zonal wind anomalies by latitude, as the legend on the bottom shows, and by height in millibars, as the legend on the left shows.

A chart showing the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies in a portion of the Equatorial Pacific known as Nino region 3,4 shows our decline from an El Nino into ‘ENSO-Neutral’ conditions around May and June. The precipitation forecast for December 2014 from the CMC2 model is not as similar to an El Nino precipitation pattern. The American model predicts a nearly constant flow of moisture from the South and into the Plains to allow for more than one shot at a severe weather event across states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and more. We begin to enter a La Nina around August or September, when the average of model guidance dips below -0.5 degrees anomaly, the threshold for a La Nina. Temperature likely to drop to 5-8 degrees on hilltops. A look at sea surface temperature anomalies across the central Pacific reveals a change in progress. The left image gives you observed temperatures at the 10 millibar level of the stratosphere, with the average temperature line in gray. The right panel depicts observed temperatures at the 30 millibar level of the stratosphere, with the average temperatures for that level shown in gray. It is in the wake of this storm system that things could start to get interesting from the 17th through Xmas Eve as there are signs cold are could start pressing as shown below..

Shown is a cross-section diagram of the ocean at the Equator, from a depth of the surface to 450 meters. Cold, dry northeasterly flow is now pushing through the Fraser River valley into NW WA, with gusts to 30 mph and more as I write this (see surface map below). The South may remain warm and dry. As we toss and turn at night, we may slip off our covers and expose ourselves to the blistering cold. National Weather Service, which in turn is part of NOAA, which is in the Dept. of Commerce. That’s not the only item arguing for a end to winter in the next several days- the stratosphere is also doing its part. • The stratosphere indicates we’ll be seeing an end to wintry weather in just 2-4 weeks. The water vapor image below indicates that the upper-level cyclone is west of southern Baja. The system of interest for the rest of the week is west of Baja.