The warm stratosphere in the United States shows up as below normal temperature anomalies, fitting in to the STI’s definition. Above normal temperature anomalies tend to lead to below normal temperature anomalies, and vice versa. Ground-level temperature verification from November 14th to November 28th, approximately 2-4 weeks after the height of this US upper stratospheric warming event, is nearly identical to the temperature anomalies experienced in the stratosphere. Now, take a look at this image of upper stratospheric temperature anomalies for December 7th. We see a strong body of above normal anomalies in the United States, as well as Central/Eastern Europe into East Asia. It is no coincidence that sea surface temperature anomalies reflect this atmospheric pattern. It’s no coincidence that we saw strong above normal temperatures across the North Pacific in response to those below normal stratospheric anomalies in late November. So bitter in fact that it might bust my November temperature forecast.

This data came as a result of analyzing the stratosphere, and determining the placement of temperature anomalies. Significantly below normal anomalies are observed across Canada, the North Pacific and far northeast Asia. From Alaska, south into the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest regions, negative height anomalies were observed on September 17th. In the other highlighted region, positive height anomalies were extending from the Bering Sea into the waters north of Hawaii. These few days between the end of October and the start of November also included slightly above normal stratospheric temperatures diving south from Canada, with below normal temperatures observed in the Pacific Northwest. Although not shown, we also saw a closed upper level low placed due south of that ridge in the Bering Sea, forming a Rex Block pattern. Between October 30 and the first few days of November, the Central and East US experienced above normal temperatures in the upper stratosphere.

Above is an image I modified from the upper air pattern of the European model. Last night both the GFS and European gave the whole mid Atlantic over 10 inches of snow and since they they have spread out. As usual there is a model spread and the GFS is showing its bias of shooting storms out to sea. Take the above European solution and move it in between this model spread and you have one ugly early season mid Atlantic snowstorm. If we take that verification window from the late November warming (December 14-28), we can expect that timeframe to be colder than normal in the US. The regions that saw above normal stratospheric temperatures, including the Central and East US, as well as Canada, saw below normal temperatures during this timeframe. This is displayed well in the Climate Prediction Center’s reanalysis of the 30th in the image above. Storm Prediction Center provides tornado and severe weather watches for the contiguous United States along with a suite of hazardous weather forecasts. For the Law of Large Numbers to Condensation, these lotto prediction formulas can be found everywhere you look on the internet, just do a quick google search and there are millions of hits.

An idea: every major city could have a nowcasting weather broadcast on the internet, updating the current weather situation every 15 minutes. The latest developments in seasonal to decadal forecasting involve fully coupled models of the ocean and atmosphere, both of which have to be initialized for the current state of the climate system from observations. You can view the latest weather updates by simply taking a glance at your phone’s home screen, where it automatically posts weather info, and all without having to launch the application. I’ve discussed the importance of realizing an ocean-atmosphere relationship for some time, and this latest evidence is only adding credibility to that relationship. Arctic air has a similar relationship with snow cover. The answer to that question is going to lie with how this vortex sets up over Canada and how much cold air presses ahead of the storm. What I am confident in is that this setup will produce very bitter cold air for this time of year late next week regardless if this storm effects the Northeast.