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Above normal temperatures are found in the entire East US, where anomalies are as high as 3 degrees above normal. This particular forecast includes a cooler than normal Northwest US, but that’s about it as far as below normal temperatures go. I believe the low pressure anomalies do actually stretch into the US, but because the forecasts are averaged out over time periods of months at a time, the anomalies are not shown correctly. At this time, The Weather Centre sees this storm as incredibly complex. At this time, probability is high that at least a moderate outbreak of severe weather will occur. Any developments will be monitored. Will continue monitoring this situation. The Kestrel 4000NV Weather Tracker is the next generation of weather monitoring. Carrot Weather has a unique appeal to it in that it offers a distinct, playful, user interface that even non-weather geeks will like. There is a consensus that this SE Ridge will be stronger than last winter.

There is something we have to discuss- the Southeast Ridge (SE Ridge). On the flip side there will be many other storm systems that bring snow and we should see a few epic periods. The entire Midwest/Northeast/Upper Midwest will get in on above average precipitation. Portions of the western North Plains will have potential for above average snowfall forecast. Genetically modified plants will be useful in boosting agricultural production and will reduce imputs such as fertiliser and sprays. This La Nina will keep the Southern US warm, and, yes, dry. Yes, the ridge is there, but it has moved much farther east, leaving us in a much drier position. This ridge of high pressure directs low pressure systems northward towards the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes/Midwest region, in turn giving those places snow. Notice how this feature produces a large north-south pressure difference over the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington, with higher pressure to the north.

We anticipate the North Plains to receive quite a bit of snowfall from these clippers. This is based on the prospect for clippers this year. The West Coast may have to deal with another wet winter, but we are not entirely sure on that prospect. While you may frown upon how this information is not ‘new’, the reason I do not update it is because the information here is still valid, and that’s something winter weather lovers should be happy about. The image above is just one of many long range models showing a favorable atmospheric set up for the winter of 2013-2014. You may remember the following five points from a winter post I made a little while ago. If we can still find these five items in long range forecasts by October, there would be little opposition for these five points to actually verify, and this little opposition for a cooler winter.

These are the five things I have seen in new long range forecasts over the past week or so. It will be critical to this cold winter theory that we see these five points continue to show up in future model forecasts through September and October. This model appears to be based off the CMC model, which doesn’t have the best reputation for forecasting. A reputed meteorologist reported that, including the Blizzard of 2011, storms in a set-up like this one may begin forecasting too far south. This would mean the storms having a slightly higher likelihood of going north than south. This meteorologist seemed to be indicating a north turn around by the models is still possible. GFS model was deemed an outlier by weather forecasters this morning, but many/all models have been wading south to the GFS, mystifying many observers of model data. The October sunspot data was released in the last week, and it shows a worrying scenario for the upcoming winter. Things will only get worse throughout this winter for the South. Will not issue maps until tomorrow for most accuracy; see no point in making obsolete maps. You will see a tightening of the contour lines in eastern Asia on the image above.

While we cannot pinpoint if all of that will be snow, we are taking the chance that the majority will be snow. Soon to come, link2weather will also include gas prices of gas stations along the route, also weather alerts, tornadoes, hurricanes, snow storms, and more. This SE Ridge’s strength may affect the Northeast’s traditional ‘Nor Easters’, but there will still be the heavy snow, ice and rain for them too. I brought about the theory that averaging out one to three months in a forecast may not project the real picture, and that theory also applies here. Classical prediction theory limits itself to quadratic cost functions, and hence least-square predictors. You can access the free course on Loan prediction practice problem using Python here. We discuss various existing link prediction models that fall in these broad categories and analyze their strength and weakness. The Weather Centre believes the models are behaving strangely by all following one model deemed an outlier.