I made mention of the literal ‘piling up’ of warm waters in the western Equatorial Pacific that signified the initial stages of a downwelling Kelvin Wave, and the Climate Prediction Center allows us to see this in action. This simulator allows in-order and out-of-order instruction execution. This solution is anticipated by the NOAA as well, with their most recent El Nino Advisory cautioning that a decline to neutral-ENSO conditions was expected in coming months, and was likely to persist into the fall and winter months. In the event of a neutral-ENSO winter, it appears cooler than normal temperatures are more likely than warmer temperatures, with the coldest anomalies most likely to be maximized in the upper Midwest and northern Plains. At the stratospheric level, it appears as though an ENSO-neutral situation provokes strong ridging over the Arctic Circle, forcing the polar vortex to lower latitudes at a weakened strength. It appears the Prophet Jeremiah was simply a type of one assigned to deliver David’s descendants safe and sound to a providential place (Jer.

Up to this point, through sea surface temperature anomalies, subsurface water temperature anomalies and a look at the atmosphere, we have determined there is a weak El Nino in place. That makes a lot of air pile up all in one place. You can probably guess what happens then – a lot of convection right over Tahiti, where the surface winds collide and create surface convergence. So, the air from the convection over Tahiti spreads out both to the east and the west. Remember how I said that air high up in the troposphere, transported there from the surface by convection, had to spread out because it could no longer rise and had no room to immediately sink? Note that, unlike ENSO, there is no neutral phase. Figure 12 above shows temperature anomalies in the December-January-February period when the ENSO phenomenon was in its neutral state. As I just mentioned, the atmosphere is also a channel by which the ENSO phenomenon shows what state it is in.

You might be thinking ‘Okay, that’s great and all, but why does it matter to finding out if the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state? This is fine for pessimists, but there is a real world out there and the indications are there’s plenty of oil. Since bubble padding is economical and lightweight, there are not any big postal charges for the additional weight. Whether you just unplug for several hours every evening or for several weeks at a time, there is no right or wrong way to limit technology in your life. Thus, the air travels east-to-west across the ocean and is transported to the top of the troposphere by way of convection. Initially things are the same as a La Nina, with surface winds going from east-to-west from the eastern Equatorial Pacific. However, we do not see a corresponding band of eastward upper-level winds to the east of that 160 E line of longitude, which would have really cemented the case for El Nino conditions. Now we’ve got surface winds in the eastern Pacific going to the west, and surface winds in the western Pacific going to the east.

The interpretation of 200-millibar winds is more mixed than the surface. In addition, a neutral-ENSO winter may set up a pattern very favorable for intense cold across wide swaths of the country (mainly in the eastern two-thirds) as disruptions to the tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortices are seen as more likely. Whereas surface winds showed a rather-convincing portrayal of La Nina conditions, upper-level winds actually seem more aligned with an El Nino, particularly given the westward winds along the Equatorial Pacific from about 160 degrees West longitude into Papua New Guinea. The July 15th – July 21st OLR averages show enhanced convection broadly in the vicinity of Tahiti, with subsidence north of Darwin near Papua New Guinea as well as just northwest of Ecuador. I’m sure you’ve seen on your local television during a storm situation about model A, B, and C. Well what is model A, B, and C? Per the figure, neutral-ENSO winters have historically featured high pressure ridges in the Bering Sea, as well as one positioned squarely over Greenland. Take a look at the Neutral-ENSO and La Nina graphics of the Walker Circulation. According to reports, he would look into a bowl full of water and receive visions of the future.