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It’s not a set-in-stone picture of what we will experience. Furthermore, it degenerates the argument to the point where no big picture workable solutions can be agreed upon. Given what we know about El Nino and what we also know about seasonal variability, this argument is completely ludicrous. Such data just lends greater support to what we already know about the statistical global temperature trends. Those that want to claim the data is manipulated can simply resort to the empirical evidence such as the deterioration of glaciers, loss of ice in the Arctic, or the 9 trillion tons of ice lost in Greenland. How statistically convenient to use a record setting Super Nino as a starting point and then claim that the globe as cooled since then ! A “Super Nino” is an El Nino winter where the critical ENSO measuring reasons feature water temperatures of more than 2 Celsius above average for a month. As mentioned, we have had 4 of these events in the 65 years of recorded history and every one has resulted in a 0.3-0.6 C rise in temperatures relative to average across the globe with higher numbers at higher latitudes.

What Abraham may not have realized is that 2,000 years later, another Father would offer His Son as an offering for sin on that very spot! El Nino. I have been referring to this seasons big El Nino as the 4th “Super Nino” in recorded ENSO history dating back 65 years. Speaking in terms of seasonal variability, nothing seems to have the impact that can match that of a Super Nino as far as global land and sea temperatures are concerned. I expect a majority of the country to lean towards cooler weather for the coming winter, based on the analog set and by extension based on some of the key seasonal teleconnections we have gone over. The needle only gets moved if the skeptics can be won over. Using D pairs, we can calculate the average number of random matches in gene pairs between two unrelated genomes, which turns out to be 0.1 or fewer.

The mild weather that prevailed in November intensified in December and turned the month into one of the mildest months relative to average since skiing began at Mad River Glen. The dry conditions extended north into the Midwest and Upper Midwest, but wetter than average conditions prevailed in the upper Ohio Valley, along the eastern Great Lakes. Last week the Seattle Times had a front page story about the Northwest becoming warmer and wetter based on recently updated climate statistics at Seattle-Tacoma Airport. The National Weather Service notes that the snow may be heavy at times and will likely create difficult travel conditions, in addition to reducing visibility. It was all over after that as mild weather reestablished control over much of eastern North America and effectively ended the season. Low pressure troughs over WA, the NT and into QLD is triggering a few showers and storms, some intense. Statistics manage to even out over time and missing one storm early in the year can be balanced out by getting “bullseyed” later in the season. A week of cold weather in early March brought with it another storm that managed to miss all of New England and provide decent snows to both Ontario and Quebec.

The weather remained true to its 2015-2016 character however and in the worst traditions of New England winter weather. Whether you’re traveling in Paris for business or pleasure, always make sure to check the Paris weather forecast for a head’s up and to prevent unexpected surprises as you tour world class museums, sites or hotel accommodations. You can also expect great social unrest around the world as even middle class families find it difficult to pay higher prices for food and energy. I just find it unfortunate that have yet to move beyond the point of proving the relevance of the data. It’s quite rare to find an analog as similar to projected conditions as this one, and we can only hope that the similarities stick as we head into fall. Analog forecasting gives us a general idea of what the upcoming winter may be like. While I cannot confirm that we will see a very dry or cold winter, the chances of both are considered to be elevated, if this analog year is to be believed. As far as synoptic snowfall projections, current trends highlight the Plains, Midwest and western Ohio Valley for the best chances of above normal snowfall.