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Also shown is a wide swath of above normal heights in northern Canada and Greenland. The presence of a negative NAO tells me the subtropical jet stream previously mentioned above will be enhanced, thus adding to the severe weather threat in the South US. We see an abundance of tornado reports over Oklahoma and Kansas when a similar set-up presented itself, only confirming this threat. 3. They must have caused enough damage to be classified as tornado using the descriptors listed on the Fujita-Pearson scale. That is 27 hPa in 24 hr, which means this storm can be classified as an explosive deepener or bomb. Higher CAPE values, in excess of 2000 joules per kilogram, can support thunderstorms at a severe level; values over 4000 joules per kilogram are considered uncommon, and can support explosive thunderstorm development. Explosive deepeners are defined as storms that intense more than 24 hPa in a day. You will note a weak low along the Delaware coast, with a central pressure of around 1004 hPa. One day later, the storm had exploded, deepening in to an intense midlatitude cyclone with the central pressure dropping to around 977 hPa (below is a general and close-up view).

Another low pressure system is also moving towards the Plains, shown in Utah in this graphic. The above graphic might appear intimidating, but in reality it’s rather simple. This depiction of above normal heights near Greenland is called the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index oscillates between positive and negative. The NAO has a positive and negative phase. Thus, when the NAO is negative, one can anticipate better chances for cold and storms in the East US, while the positive NAO brings about warmer weather. When there is high (low) pressure over Greenland, the NAO is said to be negative (positive). High pressure builds for the weekend, and will bring warmer weather our way Saturday and Sunday. One of the main reasons that people choose stainless steel tub dishwashers as compared to a plastic tub dishwasher is the ability to clean dishes at high temperatures.

The idea of seeing the horoscope also gets differed among many people. I’m feeling pretty confident in my outlook shown above. The negative height anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and West Coast in general in the analog package are reciprocated in this model’s forecast, shown by the light blue contour on the west coast of North America. We see the Pacific jet stream contributing a bit, with some weaker winds pushing southward to the east of that ridge along the west coast of North America, even though the northern jet is primarily in Canada. At times some letters of the alphabet which go to spell a particular word are even replaced by digits when part or whole of a word that these particular letters spell, sounds similar to a number when pronounced. Many apps even allow you to keep track of the previous day’s forecast. Since our post on this particular day’s threat yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has elevated its wording for this day, indicating that the threat has increased.

If convection does form (as the Storm Prediction Center has appeared less enthusiastic about storm coverage on this day than on Thursday), we could see multiple tornado-producing storm cells. It’s no coincidence that the highest instability values are forecasted within that risk area put out by the Storm Prediction Center, as well as lower, but still significant CAPE values to the east. We see a jet streak (embedded area of higher wind speeds) over western Texas, with the severe weather risk area just to the east of this streak. Today, we see a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point over central Oklahoma, a sliver of north-central Texas, much of central and eastern Kansas, the majority of Missouri, and west-central Illinois. We see an elongated stationary front extending from the northern Rockies into southern Kansas, central Missouri, and all the way to the Mid-Atlantic. By the evening hours, it is expected that this stationary front will lift north into the areas outlooked for severe weather.