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I’m not holding my breath on this Christmas storm phasing, but it probably isn’t a bad idea to keep it in the back of your mind. The sight of sparkling red sun sinking slowly into the faint blue waters is a rare moment and it really brings enthusiasm and passionate feelings in your mind. The MJO waves are shown by solid red lines, with more lines indicating a stronger MJO wave. Dashed lines highlight the suppressed phase of an MJO wave. The chart above shows 500mb geopotential height anomalies during February, in a Phase 2 MJO wave. The above image shows a Hovmoller diagram of forecasted Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies between 7.5 degrees North and 7.5 degrees South latitude, on a global longitude scale. Similarly, yellow colors indicate suppressed tropical convection, also known as positive OLR anomalies. The blue colors indicate negative OLR anomalies, which depict enhanced convection in that latitude slice, at a given longitude alignment.

Outcome measures consisted of radiographic measurements made at one week and six weeks and assessment of carpal alignment at six weeks. Animals give us clues as to the changing environment around us, such as birds flying in certain directions for several days or weeks before the season changes. An the temperature falling and staying below -30 degrees Celsius for weeks at time, makes me just want to stay in the house until spring. Taking a look at this chart, we currently see our Madden-Julian Oscillation wave progressing at a somewhat slow rate eastward, now located around 140 degrees East longitude. We’ve now confirmed that not only are looking at a storm in the Christmas time period, but model guidance has amped up that threat since yesterday. Rather high confidence in the threat of a storm in this timeframe, but low confidence in who will be most affected. For example, Koo is super low at 24 because he’s playing SF, who allow very very few FG and XP attempts (as you can see in Opponent Defense Score column). Tropical activity in the Equatorial Pacific will be dying off in the next few days (more knowledgeable weather folks know this as the MJO weakening), which will shift the weather pattern ‘responsibilities’ to the North Pacific.

However, if this does verify to a certain degree, a cooler pattern may be on the horizon. You can see the peak on July 29th of 103F. There is a slight downward trend of the high temps in early August, with much cooler peaks in late August. A positive EPO doesn’t affect the storm track so much as it does temperatures (above normal in the North US). In addition, a positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) signal will begin showing up, as ridging overtakes Canada. This will be in part due to that positive PNA, but the further east you go, the more the EPO influence takes over. The longwave pattern here says this may be a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex being shunted south into North America due to blocking high pressure east of Greenland. As the MJO wave moves further east in February, the pattern will once again turn warm.

Oregon’s turn to get inundated. It is quite unusual to get major rainfall events in our region during September, but a very wet pattern looks probable over the region this weekend and early next week. A warm pattern is likely in the middle of January. However, it does give an idea of what late January could be like. However, do you know why these various predictions have proven to be wrong? I’m a bit skeptical, however, Many Northeast weather buffs may know that winter storms are favored in the East when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) changes phases from positive to negative, or vice versa. In short, the changes in extreme weather along the West Coast has been non-uniform and don’t suggest a human-induced global warming signal. We can observe this positive PNA as a ridge forming in the West US, which allows the jet stream to buckle in the Central US.

Now, as the Hovmoller diagram shows, we expect our wave to push into that Phase 6 mark before it begins dissipating, and a new wave begins forming way off to the west. Now, we have to diagnose the weather pattern here at home in that December 22nd – 26th timeframe, to see if we can pull any hints out. We look to have a positive Pacific-North American (PNA) index pattern in place for this event. These also look very inviting, especially when you are looking forward to relaxing with your family in the garden after a hard day’s work. A look at the jet stream for Thursday evening confirms the potential severity of the event, as we see a split jet flow across the United States. Thursday will be a nice day with sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Get out and enjoy it. Regardless of if this storm phases, remember that the storm on the east coast of Japan is projected to be below 1000 millibars, so it’s likely to be a nice little storm in itself.