Weather Willy’s Weather

The weather remained true to its 2015-2016 character however and in the worst traditions of New England winter weather. 2015-2016 was a miserable winter and snow season in about every statistical way and then some. I bring this all up because I actually wanted to do the analysis and see if the repeated misses this season actually turned central and northern Vermont into the “snow hole” we all perceived it to be. I don’t see why it would. After implementation, we could see several implementation issues which are important to consider. Since there are no records or even stories known of about what happened almost 26,000 years ago, no one knows what kind of effect this alignment will have on planet Earth. Drawing maps on the internet is not my expertise but even doing this basic one is very revealing. The map isn’t perfectly drawn, but is a basic illustration of the above data. The analog year that matched all five parameters was the winter of 1958-1959. The image above shows 500mb height anomalies during the December-January-February period of that winter season.

The winter of 1958-1959 matched five out of five parameters I set forth that indicate what this winter will look like. Lastly, let’s go ahead and check out precipitation anomalies from this analog. While I cannot confirm that we will see a very dry or cold winter, the chances of both are considered to be elevated, if this analog year is to be believed. A week of cold weather in early March brought with it another storm that managed to miss all of New England and provide decent snows to both Ontario and Quebec. Just over a week later we saw more of the same, rain and another lost opportunity at a big storm. It’s painful even trying to remember all of the early season warm weather and the opportunities lost thereafter. The winter of 1958-1959 saw strong ridging/high pressure positioned over the north-central and northwest Pacific regions, with some stormier weather observed near the Gulf of Alaska.

This Pacific ridging extended well into the Arctic, helping to dismantle the mid-level polar vortex, sending it to lower latitudes like we saw last winter. Analog forecasting gives us a general idea of what the upcoming winter may be like. It’s quite rare to find an analog as similar to projected conditions as this one, and we can only hope that the similarities stick as we head into fall. The weather in Bariloche changes with every season you will some of the best snow fall during the month of August making this the perfect Argentina destination for a ski trip. Get enough of these and one might refer to his location as a “snow hole”. As promised, even one of the lousiest MRG season’s in history deserves a wrap-up. El Nino. I have been referring to this seasons big El Nino as the 4th “Super Nino” in recorded ENSO history dating back 65 years.

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